I agree with this very much. But folks don't take the labs seriously when they say they are aiming for AGI and soon. Altman can tell people the goal of OpenAI is near-term superhuman computers & people assume it is marketing. It may not be possible, but the labs believe it is.
AGI
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AI Ethics: Accepting Untruth Under Environmental Pressure?
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Does this imply that you are willing to accept untruth when your environment demands it?
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Epistemology and Rational Reasoning in Autonomous Intelligence Systems
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Epistemology can be discovered autonomously by every rational mind, and has been discovered countless times throughout history. You don’t need others to decide what’s rational once you can derive logic from first principles
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Claude Agentic Capabilities: Document Retrieval and Task Orchestration
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If instructed, Claude can enable agentic retrieval of documents from your internal knowledge base and APIs, complete tasks requiring real-time data or complex computations, and orchestrate Claude subagents for granular requests.
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Is AI becoming sentient? Examining predictive models and reasoning
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Is AI close to being sentient? How can a model that "predicts" the next phrase have such complex reasoning capabilities. What do you think?
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Understanding key questions about AI and major players
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I think this is a really important set of questions to answer in order to understand exactly what (and whom) we're dealing with. If anyone has any pointers I'd be grateful for the education.
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Egan and Chiang Write About AGI in Science Fiction
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Egan and Chiang both write about AGI. Stephenson is really the exception among current scifi authors
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LLMs as task multipliers and the future of ACI
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A very good confirmation that existing LLMs can deal with a high percentage of tasks we will be dealing with. A good ACI will be a multiplier
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Stephenson’s AGI Skepticism: Science Fiction Without Superintelligence
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Neil Stephenson's visions of the future are conspicuously AGI less. He describes LLM like AI in Diamond Age, and various other AI systems in other stories, but we are never confronted with human-level and beyond AGI. Do you think it's lack of curiosity or is it AGI skepticism?
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World possibilities with 1000x better AI technology
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What does the world look like with 1000x better AI? What will become possible? We need to think more long-term.