Yes, this is exactly what the quoted passage says. It would likely a few years of major disruption while techniques to generate alternatives were scaled up. But the disruption would be pretty catastrophic.
@emollick
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Why Fictional AI Differs Radically From Real AI Systems
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The fact that our current form of AI is so different from the AIs in science fiction blinds our imagination. In fiction, AIs are cold calculating machines driven by logic (unless you make them go insane by giving them a paradox). We have warm, weird, fallible, gullible systems.
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Why Spruce Pine Matters for AI Hardware Supply Chain
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Really nice deep dive into the reasons why Spruce Pine is so important.
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Fake AI-Generated Biography Floods Amazon With Misinformation
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Apparently I have an unauthorized biography that is 100% made up AI stuff, 118 pages of looping & repeating vagueness without any true facts. Just my official school biography used as a prompt. It manages to be both insane and boring. Amazon is getting completely overwhelmed.
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Single North Carolina mine controls global silicon wafer production
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The modern economy rests on a single road in Spruce Pine, North Carolina. The road runs to the two mines that is the sole supplier of the quartz required to make the crucibles needed to refine silicon wafers. There are no alternative sources known. From Conway’s Material World:
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Understanding True AI System Capabilities and Their Uncertainties
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It is really hard to know the true capabilities of AI systems. There are no instructions. No one knows what is in the training data (even the AI labs don’t know the content of all the web pages, articles & books). And variability in prompts, seeds, and versions adds randomness.
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AI Interpretability: Training Data Uncertainty and Model Justification
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Was it in the training set? Who knows.
Did the color of the brick really suggest that it was Georgetown and not Philly? I have no idea.
Do the shrubs suggest the US and not Europe? Maybe. Asking the AI how it thought is a request for it to justify, not truth. The mystery remains -
Claude Identifies Georgetown House: Real Understanding or Hallucination?
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Example of why working with AI both so impressive and so challenging: I show Claude a picture of a house in Georgetown that shouldn't be in its training set. It nails it (GPT-4 does too) I ask it why Georgetown? Its answers seem great, but could all be hallucinated justification
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Common Mental Model Misconception About AI and Privacy
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The mental model of many folks about how AI works is that it each model a single entity, like a person. So, for example, privacy is a concern because if GPT-4 sees something from someone in one conversation, it will know it everywhere. Subtly different than actual privacy issue.
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GPT-4 adoption gap among business and tech leaders
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In every group I speak to, from business executives to scientists, including a group of very accomplished people in Silicon Valley last night, much less than 20% of the crowd has even tried a GPT-4 class model. Less than 5% has spent the required 10 hours to know how they tick.