Read my article next decade in AI
RESEARCH
-
LLMs Alone Won’t Solve AI: The Next Decade
By
–
LLMs alone won’t get us there, and even if we do have better algorithms, there’s a lot of work to do. See my essay Next Decade in AI.
-
AGI before 2040: acknowledging LLM limits and next steps
By
–
AGI before 2040 could definitely happen. There are a lot of problems to solve but a lot of money and people working on it. The sooner people acknowledge the limits on LLMs, the sooner we might move on to what happens next. And it is hard to predict that. See also my fun dialog
-
Kurzweil Reaffirms 2029 Timeline for Artificial General Intelligence
By
–
update; kurzweil is standing by 2029, see https://
open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus
/p/clarification-from-ray-kurzweil
… -
LLMs as Lookup Tables: Limitations in Reasoning
By
–
Easily one of my favorites and hilarious how elaborate the thinking can be while getting it badly wrong despite clear instructions. Always reminds me these LLMs are still more like fancy and lossy lookup tables than reasoning engines
-
Kurzweil Clarification: Gary Marcus Analyzes AGI Predictions
By
–
https://
open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus
/p/clarification-from-ray-kurzweil
… -
AGI Timeline Predictions: Kurzweil, Musk, and Aschenbrenner Forecasts
By
–
Clarification from Ray Kurzweil: He is still predicting AGI 2029, per an email he just sent me. (details in link). A few clear, specific predictions I have heard @elonmusk
: end of 2025 @leopoldasch
: 2027
Kurzweil: 2029 (me: not this decade) -
Stochastic Parrots Writing Python Functions from Finetuning
By
–
Stochastic parrots: famously self-aware enough to write down in Python the function they've learned from finetuning on a corpus of input-outputs, without any further training in doing that.
-
Pygmalion Effect in Large Language Models: A Survey
By
–
pygmalion effect in llms: a survey winterrose et al