Geoffrey do you think advocating for strong regulation will make human extinction more likely, or less likely? On what basis do you make that assessment?
REGULATION
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AI Safety Policies May Undermine Protection Against Superintelligence
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AI Safety advocates are *not* really taking seriously the possibility of AI super intelligence. If you do really think that this is a danger, their main policy recommendations may make us much *less* safe. I explain why in this discussion:
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AI Extinction Risk: Human Agency and Potential Salvation
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My estimate is:
"considerably less than most other potential causes of human extinction"
Because we have agency in this. It's not like some sort of natural phenomenon that we can't stop. Conversely, AI could actually save humanity from extinction.
What is your estimate for that -
White House Defense Production Act Distorts AI Security Policy
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Laws to ensure AI applications are safe, fair, and transparent are needed. But the White House's use of the Defense Production Act—typically reserved for war or national emergencies—distorts AI through the lens of security, for example with phrases like "companies developing any
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Nuclear Weapons Analogy Relevance to AI Safety Concerns
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Geoffrey, that's a really weak analogy. I'm surprised you think it's relevant. Can you explain on what basis you feel like your understanding of nuclear weapons is relevant to the use of AI, and why the differences between the two are not relevant?
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Overhyped AI extinction fears discouraging students from field
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I didn't say it is a conspiracy. But I think overhyped fears about AI leading to human extinction are causing real harm:
– I'm seeing young students discouraged from entering AI because they don't want to contribute to human extinction. – Hype about harm is also being used to -
OpenAI governance structures insufficient to prevent systemic issues
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Yes exactly – it's a natural result of how the system works, and is almost impossible to avoid. OpenAI clearly tried to avoid it but setting up various governance structures, but governance is insufficient to fix this.
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Liability Claims in AI Policy Summary: Verification Discrepancy
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The word "liability" doesn't appear AFAICT on the web page, arxiv PDF, or policy supplement — but it is in your 5 point summary. Where are you getting that from? (Sorry if I'm missing something obvious!)
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AI extinction risk probability estimates without regulation
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So what is your best estimate of the probability that if AI is not strongly regulated it will lead to human extinction in the next 30 years? If you are a true Bayesian you should be able to give a number. My current estimate is 0.1. I suspect Yann's is <0.01
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Americans demand stronger AI regulation and corporate accountability
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Some data from @MorningConsult
's recent survey of Americans:
• 61% thought AI needs to be more highly regulated
• 69% said tech companies aren’t developing AI responsibly
• 32% trust AI companies
• 70% are concerned about AI’s impact on data privacy