yes huge profits there; should have clarified that (was focused on the GenAI companies). Jensen will continue to mint money.
INVESTMENT
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GPU Infrastructure Evolution: From Personal Desktops to University Investment
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Even I as a @UCBerkeley grad student had 8 gpus in my (non uni) desktop in 2012 (electricity bills weren't cheap…). Time to invest @Stanford
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Gen AI Hype: Solution Seeking Problem, Billions at Risk
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In reality, there is a thick cloud of smokey hype around AI, and it's not clear that the promises being made by the corps betting billions will ever be fulfilled (IMO gen AI is ~a solution in search of a problem so big it justifies the $$ to create/run it, which few do). 6/
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Public Funding Diversion: AI Research vs Essential Services
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Which raises a much more urgent question: does AI justify the diversion of such funding from, say, libraries, parks, schools, etc. to Google, Amazon, Microsoft on behalf of research? And if so, where's the hard proof backing this significant tradeoff? 7/
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Big Tech Marketing and AI Resource Allocation Critique
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But it's not just this. By accepting the frame that such access is vital/necessary, we're buying into Big Tech marketing that says AI is real, lasting, and requires the diversion of billion$ (that could be spent otherwise). 5/
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Big Tech dominance limits academic AI research access
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The issue: Big Tech has the $$ infrastructure, data, ability to pay talent, and access to market which no one else does. So as academics, you either pay retail for access, or get it discounted/free by yoking yourself to Big Tech (via dual affiliation, or just being hired). 2/
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Seven GPT-4 Competitors, Price Wars, Modest AI Adoption
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Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways -
GenAI dominates 80% of AI investment, stifles alternatives
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GenAI is probably 80%+ of AI investment right now. Maybe more. That is the monopoly I was and am referring to. Some of it is from VC, some internal from companies. Very little oxygen for alternative approaches right now.
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Monopoly on AI Investment Sector Discussed
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It’s a monopoly in a sector, viz on *investment in AI* I didn’t say people didn’t (or wouldn’t in my alternative history) still build tractors or fintech or whatever. Very uncharitable reading, put in rather kind words.
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Ladder Builders Cult Blocks Rocket Innovation Progress
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Did anyone ever argue that ladders aren’t useful? Gonna write an alternative history in which we never make it to the moon because of a cult of ladder builders monopolize venture capital and public imagination and shout down rockets as implausible, expensive, and unproven.