i think AGI is extremely real and important! i think the way it gets solved is going to look very, very different than debating made-up percentages in a way that excludes people who can't say shibboleth.
ETHICS
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Simulating All Possibilities to Avoid Being Wrong
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This is why I simulate all possibilities, so I’m technically never wrong.
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Kate Crawford’s Atlas of AI Wins Sally Hacker Book Prize
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Wow. So honored and blown away that Atlas of AI just won the Sally Hacker book prize tonight. Sending my gratitude to the whole community at #SHOT2022 – you lead the way in deep, nuanced, groundbreaking histories of technology and it's never been so needed. Deepest thanks
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Tesla L5 Autonomy Bet: Safety Data Milestone Before 2030
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I just put up $5,000 saying we won’t have global L5 driving w adequate safety data before 2030 and so far not one Tesla fan has joined Hotz in offering to take the other side. Y’all doubting Musk after two weeks of Twitter? What happened to your convictions?
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George Hotz bets on Level 5 autonomous vehicles globally
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Well, @realGeorgeHotz *is* betting that Lombard on a rainy night and Bombay in heavy traffic are all fine. That’s just what the bet is, global L5, not L4, disregarding regulatory issues but pending serous safety data. You are on my side, he isn’t.
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Bet on Global L5 AI Analysis by End 2029
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Great. Sounds like we basically agree on criteria. You donate 5k to Doctors Without Borders if we don’t have that analysis for global L5 by 31 December 2029; if we do I will donate $5000 to a charity of your choice. deal assuming we can agree on wording?
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AI Imbalance: 10000 Jedi vs 2 Sith Problem
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big "you were chosen to bring balance to the Force – but there are 10000 jedi and 2 sith and we didnt do the math" energy
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L5 AGI Safety Betting: Can We Achieve It by 2030?
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You want to put money on (safe as humans) L5 by end of decade? @metaculus @MatthewJBar https://
x.com/realGeorgeHotz
/realGeorgeHotz/status/1591567145032368129
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Identity Verification Technology Raises Serious Long-term Concerns
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En cualquier caso, aunque ayude al problema de la suplantación de identidad, no evita el resto. Por las razones expuestas aquí https://
x.com/e_paniagua/sta
tus/1588680501073960960?s=12&t=IG1lETeA9WuzEScNmrL_Xg
… me sigue pareciendo (y claro está, es opinión) una mala y idea con efectos negativos cuyo calado solo lo veremos con el tiempo -

Expert Identity Threats Drive Overconfident Predictions
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Relevant paper: six studies show when an expert is wrong about a public prediction and is called out for a mistake by another expert, their identity becomes threatened. They tend to respond by doubling down with more overprecise predictions rather than acknowledging errors.