My estimate is:
"considerably less than most other potential causes of human extinction"
Because we have agency in this. It's not like some sort of natural phenomenon that we can't stop. Conversely, AI could actually save humanity from extinction.
What is your estimate for that
ETHICS
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AI Extinction Risk: Human Agency and Potential Salvation
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White House Defense Production Act Distorts AI Security Policy
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Laws to ensure AI applications are safe, fair, and transparent are needed. But the White House's use of the Defense Production Act—typically reserved for war or national emergencies—distorts AI through the lens of security, for example with phrases like "companies developing any
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Native Language Fluency: Grammar Intuition Over Conscious Thought
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The fact that you do not have to consciously think about grammar and wording when speaking in your native language (though you have to consciously follow the thread of what you *mean*) was always evidence that natural language fluency could be handled by intuitive systems (DL).
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Guardian AI Hallucination Problem Highlighted
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Thanks for the link. That's really weird that The Guardian seems to hallucinated some of their summary.
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Nuclear Weapons Analogy Relevance to AI Safety Concerns
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Geoffrey, that's a really weak analogy. I'm surprised you think it's relevant. Can you explain on what basis you feel like your understanding of nuclear weapons is relevant to the use of AI, and why the differences between the two are not relevant?
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Domino’s Fall ’23: AI Project Hub and Responsible Development
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Domino's Fall '23 release: Accelerate AI projects with AI Project Hub, code swiftly with Jupyter AI, and enhance data governance. Faster, easier, responsible AI development awaits! Learn More https://
domino.buzz/3FALsBe #DataScience #ResponsibleAI #DataGovernance -
Overhyped AI extinction fears discouraging students from field
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I didn't say it is a conspiracy. But I think overhyped fears about AI leading to human extinction are causing real harm:
– I'm seeing young students discouraged from entering AI because they don't want to contribute to human extinction. – Hype about harm is also being used to -
OpenAI governance structures insufficient to prevent systemic issues
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Yes exactly – it's a natural result of how the system works, and is almost impossible to avoid. OpenAI clearly tried to avoid it but setting up various governance structures, but governance is insufficient to fix this.
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Liability Claims in AI Policy Summary: Verification Discrepancy
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The word "liability" doesn't appear AFAICT on the web page, arxiv PDF, or policy supplement — but it is in your 5 point summary. Where are you getting that from? (Sorry if I'm missing something obvious!)
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AI extinction risk probability estimates without regulation
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So what is your best estimate of the probability that if AI is not strongly regulated it will lead to human extinction in the next 30 years? If you are a true Bayesian you should be able to give a number. My current estimate is 0.1. I suspect Yann's is <0.01