It's interesting to hear investors and the news talking about the AI bubble and how it will soon burst. Honestly, even if it's a bubble, I hope it continues for as long as possible, because it means a lot of capital is being invested into AI and the field can progress faster →
ECONOMY
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Scenario Explores Anthropic’s Exposure to Falling AI Compute Costs
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2030: Anthropic goes bust despite having a solid user base because AI is now far more efficient and cheaper, and Anthropic can’t meet the $1T in compute spending it committed to pre-IPO.
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AI Token Economics Put Pressure on Frontier Lab Margins
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AI's "Low-Cost Carriers" Are Eating The Frontier Labs Alive; Citadel Securities Says Tokenomics 2.0 Is Here And Margins Are Getting Destroyed
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Burry Questions AI Infrastructure Commitments in Anthropic’s IPO Filing
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Breaking: Michael Burry says Anthropic's IPO filing shows the whole AI boom is "catastrophically vulnerable" Below are his reasonings: 1. Anthropic owes $537B for computer power, and pending deals could push it to $800B 2. Anthropic brings in about $65B a year, so it owes
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AI Infrastructure Financing Faces Potential Credit Market Constraints
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Bloomberg: "A new anxiety is gripping Wall Street as it bankrolls the vast network of data centers and chips behind the artificial intelligence boom: Early signs suggest that the credit market is approaching the limits of how much more debt it can absorb.
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Anthropic Cash Analysis Accounts for Future Compute Commitments
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On the one hand impressive that Anthropic has one of corporate America’s largest cash balances. But on the other hand that is before accounting for convertible financing and hundreds of billions of dollars in long-term compute and lease commitments
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Falling LLM Token Prices Raise Questions About Infrastructure Spending
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⚠️ RESEARCH: LLM token prices down 55% from the May top and now below where they started the year. Great for anyone using AI but not so great for the companies spending $165B a quarter on capex.
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Essay Compares AI Anxiety With Mercantilist Views of Scarce Intelligence
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Cognitive Mercantilism https://
open.substack.com/pub/contraptio
ns/p/cognitive-mercantilism?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
… ✍️ @vgr @ribbonfarm via "Contraptions" on @Substack 👉 In this essay, the author argues that contemporary AI anxiety mirrors the zero-sum panic of early mercantilism by mistakenly treating intelligence as a scarce commodity to be -
Inference Margin Estimate Compares Anthropic Serving Costs With Model Prices
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We are really underestimating how efficient inference is at big labs. Anthropic's gross margin is 85%, so it costs them $0.60 / $3.00 to serve Opus 5.5. This is less than what OpenAI is charging for 6.1 Terra and much less than Muse, Gemini, Kimi etc.
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Commentary Examines Compute Providers’ Economics and AI Infrastructure Demand
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The $3.1B/month rate isn't guaranteed through 2029. Regardless, the compute play is paying off for SpaceX(AI)>(SI). While neoclouds might suffer, the big compute providers will absolutely dominate. With NVIDIA being amongst the big winners. Buy more, save more.