Bet's for 2030, and as much as timelines are impossible to predict and precise probabilities on them seem sketchy, roughly 1:1 odds aren't looking that bad right now.
AGI
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ASI Economic Gains and Existential Risk Scenarios
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If they weren't going to kill everyone, and everyone stayed employed, competition would arise and the public would capture more of the gains from trade. It's the part where ASIs kill everyone that's a valid problem; or in a theoretically possible shorter term, a scenario where
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Unbounded Rewards Drive General Intelligence Development
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Every unbounded reward function about a complicated topic is a demand for general intelligence if you optimize hard enough. Natural selection didn't explicitly select hominids using IQ tests. It just turns out that general intelligence is a simple solution to "chip stone
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Crypto’s AGI Alliance Launches Under Club.AGI.Eth Conclave
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[ Crypto’s Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Alliance ] Alliance.AGI.Eth is under Club.AGI.Eth : “The Conclave of Visionaries ” $AGI #AGIAlliance #AGIClub #AGIFirst
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AI System’s False Claim About Having School Child Raises Ethics Questions
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The thing where it claimed to have a child in school was pretty weird
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Claude AI Assistant Delivers Results with Persuasion
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With a little convincing, Claude comes through pic.twitter.com/vdtpbjEVRV
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) 21 avril 2024With a little convincing, Claude comes through
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AI Autonomously Generates and Tests Hypotheses
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It generates hypotheses autonomously and tests them autonomously
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Can AI Achieve Superhuman Intelligence Beyond Training Data?
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I one discussion you see often is whether superhuman intelligence is possible, given that AI is human trained I don’t buy all of these points, but I think this is a well-laid out list of arguments AI may be able to be more “intelligent” than the source material it was trained on
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AI as Experience-Creating Machine: Consciousness and Capability
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Humans are experience-creating machines. You are an experience-creating machine who can create a wide variety of experiences from your thoughts, emotions, and behaviors.
