The over/under for the arrival of AGI is currently the year 2043 according to people who say they work in AI in my highly-scientific Twitter poll.
AGI
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Alignment cannot be achieved with minimal effort or partial care
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No. You don't get tiny bits of caring about humans without vastly better alignment. It's like hoping that if you put a few hours of work into a piece of algorithmic trading software, that it'll make 1% as much of the big profits you heard about others making.
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Digital Afterlife: Superintelligence Preservation of Human Consciousness
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Our value to them could be tiny and they'd at least save our brain-states and run it on a basketball-sized computer for a few hundred thousand subjective years. I expect value zero. These will not be our children; if I expected them to be that, I'd feel differently.
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SI Biotech Mastery Eliminates Human Labor Economic Value
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It goes to zero positive products; at the latest, after an SI has sufficient biotech mastery to build something that does the same work as a human without demanding pay. (Easier with nanotech, but some people aren't familiar with that physical analysis and think it's magic.)
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Skepticism About Hyped Future Technologies and AI Narratives
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We're all going to be living in the metaverse getting everything we need to know from ChatXYZ, surrounded by stable diffusion art, paid for with crypto, and delivered by self-driving cars, or flying taxis. All fusion powered and run by AGI quantum computers. So much future! Soon!
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AGI Timeline and AI Research Involvement
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When will AI match or surpass humans in essentially all cognitive tasks (aka AGI)?
Do you do research or work on AI? -
AI’s Future Role in Scientific Research and Discovery
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Great article by Bennie Mols on the future role of AI for science.
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Safe AGI Development and Commercialization Strategy
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Step 1: Build safe AGI Step 2: Sell Sugar Water Step 3: Profit!
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Future Works Should Document AI Drawbacks and Limitations
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It sounds like the responsibility of future works to mention these drawbacks, so that hopefully it becomes well known.
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Building High-Synergy Agent Formations and Optimal Puzzle Solutions
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The authors divide this problem into 2 subproblems: 1/ Building formations with high synergy 2/ Solve puzzles in a near-optimal way