and the original article: https://
nautil.us/deep-learning-
is-hitting-a-wall-238440/
…
@garymarcus
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Deep Learning Hitting Wall: Challenges and Future Directions
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Overlooking lawsuits and licensing costs in AI economics
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yeah, i kicked myself after for omitting the lawsuits and licensing costs!
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Deep Learning Wall Prediction: Two-Year Evaluation
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Two years ago today I argued that Deep Learning was Hitting a Wall. How did I do? Point by point evaluation at link below
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Jensen Huang continues minting money in AI hardware boom
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yes huge profits there; should have clarified that (was focused on the GenAI companies). Jensen will continue to mint money.
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Seven GPT-4 Competitors, Price Wars, Modest AI Adoption
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Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways -
GPT-3 Limitations: Beyond Fluent Bullshit Generation
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Take a step back, people. You make genuine advances not just by looking at progress, but by recognizing obstacles.
— Gary Marcus (@GaryMarcus) 10 mars 2024
August 2020:
GPT-3 is a “𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘣𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 175 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 450… pic.twitter.com/XdCrqNdtCkTake a step back, people. You make genuine advances not just by looking at progress, but by recognizing obstacles. August 2020:
GPT-3 is a “𝘧𝘭𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘧 𝘣𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘵, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 175 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 450 -
GenAI dominates 80% of AI investment, stifles alternatives
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GenAI is probably 80%+ of AI investment right now. Maybe more. That is the monopoly I was and am referring to. Some of it is from VC, some internal from companies. Very little oxygen for alternative approaches right now.
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Monopoly on AI Investment Sector Discussed
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It’s a monopoly in a sector, viz on *investment in AI* I didn’t say people didn’t (or wouldn’t in my alternative history) still build tractors or fintech or whatever. Very uncharitable reading, put in rather kind words.
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Ladder Builders Cult Blocks Rocket Innovation Progress
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Did anyone ever argue that ladders aren’t useful? Gonna write an alternative history in which we never make it to the moon because of a cult of ladder builders monopolize venture capital and public imagination and shout down rockets as implausible, expensive, and unproven.