Clarification from Ray Kurzweil: He is still predicting AGI 2029, per an email he just sent me. (details in link). A few clear, specific predictions I have heard @elonmusk
: end of 2025 @leopoldasch
: 2027
Kurzweil: 2029 (me: not this decade)
@garymarcus
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AGI Timeline Predictions: Kurzweil, Musk, and Aschenbrenner Forecasts
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Did OpenAI Train GPT-4 on AP Biology Exams?
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Did OpenAI play @BillGates
? (On purpose? By accident?) We don’t know what was on the AP Biology exam that blew Gates away—nor on how many AP bio exams OpenAI trained GPT-4 on. But we *do* know from recent research that GPT-4’a famous law school results were significantly -
Gary Marcus Defines AGI Criteria Beyond Current AI
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current AI ain’t AGI but for some criteria for AGI that I developed based on earlier definitions, and vetted with the community: https://
garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-mu
sk-here-are-five-things
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GPT-4o in 21 Months: Is AI Progress Really Exponential?
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“Exponential”, my ass. GPT was first shown to Gates August 2022 21 months later all we have is GPT-4o
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Neurosymbolic AI Beats Pure Scale Approach
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If scale is all that is needed, I lose. If it’s patently neurosymbolic, I win, bigly.
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LLM Output Reliability: Verifying Sources and Links
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What’s the actual link they give? Is it legit? I would never take LLM output as an authoritative source and can click through your screenshot
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GenAI impact on jobs: promises versus current reality
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It is definitely possibly that AGI will lift all boats, but GenAI has not thus far, and we may well hear more stories like this one: https://
x.com/psychopomp_ink
/psychopomp_ink/status/1789688407150718978
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AGI Achievement and Its Impact on the Middle Class
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If and when AGI is achieved, the middle class will get
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AGI Achievement and Its Impact on Global Poverty
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If and when AGI is achieved, the poor will get
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World’s richest men double wealth as poorest get poorer
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https://
theguardian.com/inequality/202
4/jan/15/worlds-five-richest-men-double-their-money-as-poorest-get-poorer
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