60 years of exponential growth in chip density was achieved not through one breakthrough or technology, but a series of problems solved and new paradigms explored as old ones hit limits. I don't think current AI has hit a wall, but even if it does, there many paths forward now.
@emollick
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AI interfaces advancing rapidly in coding, lacking elsewhere
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There are probably other workflows and UXes that might work even better. Kind of a shame that the only place where AI interfaces are advancing rapidly are in coding (not surprising given who is making AI interfaces right now).
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Excel AI vs ChatGPT Agent: Two Visions for Future Work
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I don't think ChatGPT Agent is all the way there yet, and obviously there is a lot of good use for inserting AI-powered formulas into spreadsheets, but Excel's AI integration and ChatGPT Agent represent two very different bets on what the future of work may look like.
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Excel Copilot vs GPT-5 Agent: UX Design for AI
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Been trying the new COPILOT function in Excel, and it is interesting & useful for things like categorizing, but not sure inserting a prompt into a cell will be the right UX for using AI. For example, GPT-5 Agent can take & edit the whole spreadsheet & provide higher level advice
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Macroeconomic Complexity Challenges Short-term Analysis
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A lot of macroeconomic things happening at once, and a short timeframe, make teasing apart the details challenging.
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AI Slowing Junior Hiring in US Tech Fields
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The fact that junior hiring in AI intensive fields has slowed down somewhat in the US seems pretty solid. The evidence linking it to AI is not yet established, we have seen a couple solid attempts that suggest a connection, but it is really hard to tell for sure, given the data.
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AI Model Reasoning Transparency and Tool Use Auditing Requirements
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I understand that the actual reasoning trace might be obscured, either for IP reasons or because of the way these models work, but it needs to provide evidence of its actual tool use for auditing and further exploration.
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Generative AI Reduces Junior Hiring While Preserving Senior Roles
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A second paper also finds Generative AI is reducing the number of junior people hired (while not impacting senior roles). This one compares firms across industries who have hired for at least one AI project versus those that have not. Firms using AI were hiring fewer juniors
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GPT-5 Pro needs transparency in code execution and analysis
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That said, one thing OpenAI needs to do is let me see the analysis being done by GPT-5 Pro. I can't confirm its work without being able to see the python code it ran and what the results were. The fact that the error it spotted was real helps, but the thinking trace is obscured.
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AI Autonomously Critiques Methods and Performs Advanced Statistical Analysis
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The fact that my only prompt was "critique the methods of this paper, figure out better methods and apply them" and that it spontaneously checked the relationships in my tables, ran monte carlo simulations on my point estimates and did sensitivity analyses was kind of nuts,