I often teach about innovation, and whether with students or executives, it is amazing how quickly Crypto/NFTs has vanished as a topic of interest over the past months (The Metaverse/VR still comes up a lot) So you might have missed the latest giant crypto collapse happening now
@emollick
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New York Times Forced to Modify Election Uncertainty Visualization
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The New York Times had one of the great graphical displays of election uncertainty, but we forced them to modify it because we don’t like to feel uncertain.
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Extreme Event Prediction Paradox in Forecasting Accuracy
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“In this paper, we show that an accurate prediction about such an extreme event, e.g., a big hit, may in fact be an indication of poor rather than good forecasting ability.” Paper: https://
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf
m?abstract_id=1621800
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Lucky predictions aren’t prophet-like expertise in data analysis
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Everyone should know that the people (whether entrepreneurs or pundits) who correctly predict an extreme event that no one else expected are not prophets. In fact, they are often the WORST at predictions. Rather then being wise, they are often bad at data analysis but got lucky.
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Older Needle Tool: Managing Uncertainty Through Random Outcome Jiggling
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For reference, this is the older Needle, which made us confront uncertainty by randomly jiggling within the likely range of outcomes. pic.twitter.com/rReMWD3jIY
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) 9 novembre 2022For reference, this is the older Needle, which made us confront uncertainty by randomly jiggling within the likely range of outcomes.
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New York Times Needle: Visualizing AI Uncertainty and User Anxiety
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The New York Times Needle is good. It was even better at illustrating uncertainty in the old days, when it vibrated, though we hated it because uncertainty makes us anxious. https://
sjdm.org/journal/20/200
907b/jdm200907b.pdf
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Rats Display Human Investment Biases in Capitalism Study
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We finally have taught rats capitalism! And, fascinating, they behave a lot like humans in the stock market, displaying human investment biases including doubling down on losses & a tendency to avoid quickly realizing losses while rapidly realizing gains. https://
psycnet.apa.org/record/2021-15
335-002
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Twitter Engineer Warns Platform Breaking Under Feature Strain
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Folks may be tired of talking about the potential decline of Twitter, but this piece by a Twitter engineer on how the site might start breaking under the strain of new features & not enough people, is good Also, a useful perspective on how software decays https://
technologyreview.com/2022/11/08/106
2886/heres-how-a-twitter-engineer-says-it-will-break-in-the-coming-weeks/
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Favorite Book on Extraterrestrial Life and Universe Exploration
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Yes. My favorite book on the problem. https://
amazon.com/Universe-Teemi
ng-Aliens-WHERE-EVERYBODY/dp/3319132350/ref=nodl_?dplnkId=73876c48-56c0-4448-b18f-654dcd55039d
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Dangerous VR and Tech Innovation: Ethics of Lethal Designs
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Fun things turned killer provocations:
Palmer Luckey (founder of the Oculus) posts a design for a VR helmet that can kill you, inspired by anime: http://
palmerluckey.com/if-you-die-in-
the-game-you-die-in-real-life/
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Julijonas Urbonas designed a roller coaster that would kill anyone who rides on it https://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euthanasi
a_Coaster
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