The Twitter blue check parody explosion hits humans in a communication weak spot: we can’t tell what is sarcastic in written communication! Even worse, we absolutely think we can, but when tested we are no better than chance. Plus, older people are even worse than younger ones.
@emollick
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Understanding Opportunity Cost: Swedish Economists’ Key Insight
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A survey of every Swedish economist found the economics concept that would benefit the most people to understand is "opportunity cost." It is what you give up when you make a choice. Not just what you don’t buy, but also what you could have done by saving for later. Relevant!
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Verified Accounts Identity Stakes Fact Checking Online Trust
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Note that I said “triaged.” I wasn’t believing everything someone with a blue check wrote, obviously. But verified accounts had reputations & real identities that gave them stakes. And it made checking identities easier. And thus I could check their facts & biases more easily.
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Twitter Blue Checks Removed: Impact on Misinformation Detection
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As a Twitter user, dealing with the end of using blue check marks as a source of information is weird. They were a major way that I unconsciously triaged the credibility of posts. I wonder if this will hurt our misinformation detection is subtle ways, beyond just impersonation.
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Team Size, Collaboration Costs, and Collective Intelligence
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So I posted to my new Substack about two graphs that should haunt every manager: as team size grows, there are more opportunities for collaboration, but also an increase in slacking & communication costs. The solution? Increase collective intelligence. https://
oneusefulthing.substack.com/p/the-problem-
of-management-in-two?sd=pf
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Randomized Controlled Trial Results Methodology Discussion
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I dunno, the paper is a randomized controlled trial, and reports a ton of different results. Given the methodology, I am not seeing why the underlined sections make it a "yawn."
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Crypto Collapse: How Innovation Trends Shift Rapidly
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I often teach about innovation, and whether with students or executives, it is amazing how quickly Crypto/NFTs has vanished as a topic of interest over the past months (The Metaverse/VR still comes up a lot) So you might have missed the latest giant crypto collapse happening now
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New York Times Forced to Modify Election Uncertainty Visualization
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The New York Times had one of the great graphical displays of election uncertainty, but we forced them to modify it because we don’t like to feel uncertain.
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Extreme Event Prediction Paradox in Forecasting Accuracy
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“In this paper, we show that an accurate prediction about such an extreme event, e.g., a big hit, may in fact be an indication of poor rather than good forecasting ability.” Paper: https://
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf
m?abstract_id=1621800
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Lucky predictions aren’t prophet-like expertise in data analysis
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Everyone should know that the people (whether entrepreneurs or pundits) who correctly predict an extreme event that no one else expected are not prophets. In fact, they are often the WORST at predictions. Rather then being wise, they are often bad at data analysis but got lucky.