Note that I said “triaged.” I wasn’t believing everything someone with a blue check wrote, obviously. But verified accounts had reputations & real identities that gave them stakes. And it made checking identities easier. And thus I could check their facts & biases more easily.
@emollick
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Twitter Blue Checks Removed: Impact on Misinformation Detection
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As a Twitter user, dealing with the end of using blue check marks as a source of information is weird. They were a major way that I unconsciously triaged the credibility of posts. I wonder if this will hurt our misinformation detection is subtle ways, beyond just impersonation.
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Team Size, Collaboration Costs, and Collective Intelligence
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So I posted to my new Substack about two graphs that should haunt every manager: as team size grows, there are more opportunities for collaboration, but also an increase in slacking & communication costs. The solution? Increase collective intelligence. https://
oneusefulthing.substack.com/p/the-problem-
of-management-in-two?sd=pf
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Randomized Controlled Trial Results Methodology Discussion
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I dunno, the paper is a randomized controlled trial, and reports a ton of different results. Given the methodology, I am not seeing why the underlined sections make it a "yawn."
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Crypto Collapse: How Innovation Trends Shift Rapidly
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I often teach about innovation, and whether with students or executives, it is amazing how quickly Crypto/NFTs has vanished as a topic of interest over the past months (The Metaverse/VR still comes up a lot) So you might have missed the latest giant crypto collapse happening now
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Extreme Event Prediction Paradox in Forecasting Accuracy
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“In this paper, we show that an accurate prediction about such an extreme event, e.g., a big hit, may in fact be an indication of poor rather than good forecasting ability.” Paper: https://
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf
m?abstract_id=1621800
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Lucky predictions aren’t prophet-like expertise in data analysis
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Everyone should know that the people (whether entrepreneurs or pundits) who correctly predict an extreme event that no one else expected are not prophets. In fact, they are often the WORST at predictions. Rather then being wise, they are often bad at data analysis but got lucky.
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Older Needle Tool: Managing Uncertainty Through Random Outcome Jiggling
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For reference, this is the older Needle, which made us confront uncertainty by randomly jiggling within the likely range of outcomes. pic.twitter.com/rReMWD3jIY
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) 9 novembre 2022For reference, this is the older Needle, which made us confront uncertainty by randomly jiggling within the likely range of outcomes.
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New York Times Needle: Visualizing AI Uncertainty and User Anxiety
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The New York Times Needle is good. It was even better at illustrating uncertainty in the old days, when it vibrated, though we hated it because uncertainty makes us anxious. https://
sjdm.org/journal/20/200
907b/jdm200907b.pdf
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Rats Display Human Investment Biases in Capitalism Study
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We finally have taught rats capitalism! And, fascinating, they behave a lot like humans in the stock market, displaying human investment biases including doubling down on losses & a tendency to avoid quickly realizing losses while rapidly realizing gains. https://
psycnet.apa.org/record/2021-15
335-002
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