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Fine-tuning Miscalibration: Model Confidence Doesn’t Match Accuracy

If not careful, fine-tuning collapses entropy relatively arbitrarily, creates miscalibrations, e.g. see Figure 8 from GPT-4 report on MMLU. i.e., if a model gives probability 50% to a class, it is not correct 50% of the time; its confidence isn't calibrated.

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