SAFETY

Tesla L5 Autonomy Bet: Safety Data Milestone Before 2030

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13 November 2022 2h07

I just put up $5,000 saying we won’t have global L5 driving w adequate safety data before 2030 and so far not one Tesla fan has joined Hotz in offering to take the other side. Y’all doubting Musk after two weeks of Twitter? What happened to your convictions?

George Hotz bets on Level 5 autonomous vehicles globally

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13 November 2022 2h04

Well, @realGeorgeHotz *is* betting that Lombard on a rainy night and Bombay in heavy traffic are all fine. That’s just what the bet is, global L5, not L4, disregarding regulatory issues but pending serous safety data. You are on my side, he isn’t.

Defining True Autonomy: No Steering Wheel Required

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13 November 2022 1h52

It’s No now and no it shall remain for longer than many people think. I have been saying this since 2016… the criteria are clear: you don’t need a steering wheel or a driver and you can go where you want to go; anything less is (at most) L4, by definition

Phoenix Testing Inadequate for Full Level 5 Autonomous Validation

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13 November 2022 1h45

a major city is not adequate for L5, since eg you can pick Phoenix w good weather and few pedestrians which is just a subset of the full problem. See eg

Level 5 Autonomy Challenges in Urban Environments Like NYC

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13 November 2022 1h42

No, that is not L5. There may be some cities like that, especially ones designed from scratch, but that’s not L5. And it won’t help eg in NYC. Certainly possible in principle to be safer than humans, fully automated, and it probably will happen, I just doubt it will be soon.

Autonomous Vehicle Safety Evaluation and Independent Agency Oversight

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13 November 2022 0h43

Most commutes, around the globe, really? I am willing to bracket regulatory issues and pulled over vehicles if we can agree on a way to evaluate safety that is some kind of independent agency that has access to data.

L5 AGI Safety Betting: Can We Achieve It by 2030?

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13 November 2022 0h22

You want to put money on (safe as humans) L5 by end of decade? @metaculus @MatthewJBar https://
x.com/realGeorgeHotz
/realGeorgeHotz/status/1591567145032368129
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Innate Priors Shape AI Learning: Evolution Over Minimalism

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12 November 2022 22h07

– you still need some prior to organize that infinite data and decide how to generalize from it
– the choice to minimize is an aesthetic choice, not a scientific one; evolution has clearly endowed many animals with significant priors (eg baby ibex climbing down a mountain).