Yeah I agree timelines are accelerating (though my tweet was more about the speed of their execution in particular, which I think is impressive)
MARKET TRENDS
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xAI Announces Grok-0: 33B Parameter LLM Approaching LLaMA 2
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Announcing #Grok by @xai @elonmusk v/ @_akhaliq Blog https://
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trained a prototype LLM (Grok-0) with 33 billion parameters. This early model approaches LLaMA 2 (70B) capabilities on standard LM benchmarks but uses only half of its -
Waymo vs Cruise: Assessing True Level 5 Autonomous Driving
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My guess is that Waymo is markedly better than Cruise, but – One critical question is how much better; even an order of magnitude less intervention would still be a long way from true L5 self-driving
– The other rumor I hear is that Waymo is super-tailored to particular roads, -
Monday Trading Strategy: Investment Decisions in AI Markets
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What is your Monday plan? Buy what? Sell what?
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New Space Shows Expected Consolidation Pattern Among Companies
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We are seeing what you expect to see in a new and exciting space: A large number of companies are being started in this space and over time, we will see a lot of consolidation and a handful of key players emerge. /17
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Future AI Services Market: Limited Competition with Subscription Models
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It is extremely unlikely that we will have more than 2-3 of these services. These services, like ChatGPT, will have a free and paid subscription tier. Paying subscribers will enjoy premium features like personalized responses and access to multi-modal features etc. /10
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Google, Meta, and OpenAI dominate consumer LLM market
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All this means that we will end up with Google, Meta, and potentially OpenAI being the key players in the consumer LLM (e.g., ChatGPT, Bard, etc.) world. /9
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Will Specialized LLMs Emerge for Specific General-Purpose Tasks?
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LLMs For General Purpose Tasks So the next question is will we have specialized LLMs for some general-purpose tasks like coding, reasoning, summarization, or writing? GPT-4 does really well on code compared to Google's LLMs, so will there be several purpose-built LLMs? /6
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Bard vs GPT-4: Performance on Recent vs Historical Data
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Already, Bard outperforms GPT-4 when it comes to queries about recent data and GPT-4 does much better on queries on data available before September 2021 (it's training cut-off date). /5
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Google and Meta’s Data Advantage in LLM Development
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Meta enjoys the same advantage in terms of being able to use Facebook and Instagram data. This will translate to Google and Meta LLMs being able to serve and respond to general information queries better than LLMs from OpenAI or other start-ups. /4