My estimate is:
"considerably less than most other potential causes of human extinction"
Because we have agency in this. It's not like some sort of natural phenomenon that we can't stop. Conversely, AI could actually save humanity from extinction.
What is your estimate for that
AGI
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AI Extinction Risk: Human Agency and Potential Salvation
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Overhyped AI extinction fears discouraging students from field
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I didn't say it is a conspiracy. But I think overhyped fears about AI leading to human extinction are causing real harm:
– I'm seeing young students discouraged from entering AI because they don't want to contribute to human extinction. – Hype about harm is also being used to -
OpenAI governance structures insufficient to prevent systemic issues
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Yes exactly – it's a natural result of how the system works, and is almost impossible to avoid. OpenAI clearly tried to avoid it but setting up various governance structures, but governance is insufficient to fix this.
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AI extinction risk probability estimates without regulation
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So what is your best estimate of the probability that if AI is not strongly regulated it will lead to human extinction in the next 30 years? If you are a true Bayesian you should be able to give a number. My current estimate is 0.1. I suspect Yann's is <0.01
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UK AI Safety Summit Addresses Existential Risks and International Coordination
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The UK's big AI safety summit takes place tomorrow. It's a two-day event that's set to be jampacked with lots of chatter on the existential risks surrounding AI – and finding some international coordination on the technology (no mean feat with both the US and China attending).
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Andrew Ng Existential Risk Claims Disputed by Former Google Researcher
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Andrew Ng is claiming that the idea that AI could make us extinct is a big-tech conspiracy. A datapoint that does not fit this conspiracy theory is that I left Google so that I could speak freely about the existential threat.
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Ilya Sutskever shares OpenAI hopes and fears for AI future
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Exclusive: Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist, on his hopes and fears for the future of AI https://
bit.ly/3MpG07U #AI #MachineLearning #DeepLearning #LLMs #DataScience -
Rumors of Artificial General Intelligence Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
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Full episode transcript can be found here: https://
buzzsprout.com/2126417/138675
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Rumors of AGI Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
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Alt for the video: Audiogram for Mystery AI Hype Theater Ep 18. Title: Rumors of Artificial General Intelligence Have Been Greatly Exaggerated. Subtitle: A tale of shifting goalposts. Icon for the podcast and then a soundwave superimposed with the subtitles for the recording.
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Debunking AGI Hype: Aguera y Arcas Artifacts Revisited
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Ep 18 now up in podcast form! A nostalgic return to taking apart another #AIHype artifact from Agüera y Arcas w/ @alexhanna 🙂
— @emilymbender.bsky.social (@emilymbender) 31 octobre 2023
Thx to @ctaylsaurus for production.https://t.co/AJnA4fIPS8 pic.twitter.com/eVATypLoqjEp 18 now up in podcast form! A nostalgic return to taking apart another #AIHype artifact from Agüera y Arcas w/ @alexhanna 🙂 Thx to @ctaylsaurus for production. https://
buzzsprout.com/2126417/138675
00-episode-18-rumors-of-artificial-general-intelligence-have-been-greatly-exaggerated
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