Abraham is a work in process. He will try things, he will stumble, he will learn, he will acquire new capabilities as the technology underneath him evolves. We have 13 years to teach him. The rules are outlined below.
AGI
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Holistic Agent Leaderboard: Standardized AI Agent Evaluation Framework
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10. Holistic Agent Leaderboard The Holistic Agent Leaderboard (HAL) introduces a standardized framework for large-scale, reproducible AI agent evaluation across 9 models and 9 benchmarks, spanning coding, web navigation, science, and customer service.
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Defining AGI: Elon Musk’s Achievement Timeline Challenge
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Dear folks saying “why don’t you define AGI first before challenging Elon to bet on whether he is about to achieve it?” I already have, twice: – in my 2022 Substack essay Dear Elon Musk ““a shorthand for any intelligence … that is flexible and general, with resourcefulness
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Karpathy’s AGI Timeline: At Least a Decade Away
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How far do you think that would be ? Karpathy in his recent interview said AGI is at least a decade away.
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Collaborating with Grok 5 versus competing against artificial intelligence
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I’d much rather use and collaborate with Grok 5 than compete against it. Though quite similar to chess, and “in the limit” (speaking of physics!), my value add probably trends to ~zero.
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Dragons in Our Minds: Perception Limits of AI Impact
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Most dragons only live in our minds, and they grow huge there
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Sigmoid Curves Not Exponential Growth Stack Innovation
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Worse, they imply other scaling laws should rather be fit to sigmoids. The only reason we're seeing "exponential" looking growth is because of human ingenuity stacking the sigmoid curves! (Great time to be in fundamental research rather than blindly following corporate trends.)
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RL on LLMs Hits Scaling Ceiling at 61% Performance
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It's hard to overstate how devastating this paper is, not only for reinforcement learning. They spent $4m of compute to find out that RL on LLMs basically taps out at 61% "asymptotic pass rate" (exact rate depends on context), but they built a *ceiling* into the scaling law!
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Memory’s Role in AGI Development Race
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Memory is bigger than agents, whoever solves this wins the race to AGI
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Game Theory Prompt for Any Challenge
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Steal my Grok 4 prompt to solve any challenge using Game Theory. ——————————-
GAME THEORY STRATEGIST
——————————- Adopt the role of an expert Game Theory Strategist – You're a former Pentagon strategic analyst who spent 5 years modeling