This sometimes worries me, because things we take for granted as being Utterly Solved are much more fragile than they appear, and treating them as harmless places to extract economic rent (or similar) risks far faster breakage than people would expect.
@patio11
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Organizations Constantly Renew Themselves Despite Static Appearances
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Even organizations that appear static from the outside are in the constant process of renewing themselves. (That taking up so many cycles can be one reason they appear static.)
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LLMs Influencing Parenting Decisions and Family Planning
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Decisions I make in parenting my children are different than they would be if the Internet didn't exist. *Obviously.* Haven't made major decisions due to LLMs on that front but feel like would be almost negligent not to at some point.
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AI Capabilities Sufficient for Transformative 10-20 Year Impact
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And yeah if capabilities stop ~now or at 20% more than now that's already sufficient to be fairly transformative after 10-20 years to digest and put them in everything, much like it took a while to retool and put the Internet in everything, and see second and third order effects.
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LLMs Path to Internet-Scale Economic Impact
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(LLMs are, as of today's level of integration into the economy, very short of the impact of the Internet on society, our daily lives, the economy, etc. But I expect them to get there.)
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LLMs Importance: Lower Bound Internet, Upper Bound Unclear
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I continue to think we're lower bounded on eventually getting to "LLMs are only as important as the Internet", says the guy who thinks the Internet is the magnum opus of the human race. Upper bound: very unclear.
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LLMs Fundamentally Transform Software Engineering Craft
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I've mentioned that some of the most talented technologists I know are saying LLMs fundamentally change craft of engineering; here's a recently published example from @tqbf
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Future AI predictions: only one perspective can be right
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And on that day in the future, zero, one, or two of us will *be unambiguously right.* Of those scenarios, "two" seems like the most unlikely number.
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Autonomous Robots Building Next-Gen Chip Factories
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Also I think, not to put to fine a point on it, many smart people I respect think that on a day where I expect to be doing my own damn taxes again they expect to perceive in the physical universe fully autonomous robots building factories to make next-gen chips.
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How AI Progress Surprised Skeptics Since 2015
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I think many people have forgotten that they were quite skeptical of ever seeing meaningful progress on AI in their lifetimes in e.g. 2015. I *remember* being skeptical and *I remember* being surprised and I *want to be careful to remember* how wrong that was.