(LLMs are, as of today's level of integration into the economy, very short of the impact of the Internet on society, our daily lives, the economy, etc. But I expect them to get there.)
@patio11
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LLMs Importance: Lower Bound Internet, Upper Bound Unclear
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I continue to think we're lower bounded on eventually getting to "LLMs are only as important as the Internet", says the guy who thinks the Internet is the magnum opus of the human race. Upper bound: very unclear.
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LLMs Fundamentally Transform Software Engineering Craft
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I've mentioned that some of the most talented technologists I know are saying LLMs fundamentally change craft of engineering; here's a recently published example from @tqbf
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Future AI predictions: only one perspective can be right
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And on that day in the future, zero, one, or two of us will *be unambiguously right.* Of those scenarios, "two" seems like the most unlikely number.
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Autonomous Robots Building Next-Gen Chip Factories
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Also I think, not to put to fine a point on it, many smart people I respect think that on a day where I expect to be doing my own damn taxes again they expect to perceive in the physical universe fully autonomous robots building factories to make next-gen chips.
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How AI Progress Surprised Skeptics Since 2015
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I think many people have forgotten that they were quite skeptical of ever seeing meaningful progress on AI in their lifetimes in e.g. 2015. I *remember* being skeptical and *I remember* being surprised and I *want to be careful to remember* how wrong that was.
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Tracking AI capability predictions for future assessment
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n.b. Almost every time I publicly describe discrete capabilities like these a thought I have is "I want to remember in the future what I previously thought about the future shape of the curve to know if I need to update radically more than I have updated."
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MS Excel’s Value and Limitations in Task Automation
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That might very well have value! MS Excel has a stupid amount of value. But "MS Excel did my taxes for me" is obviously risibly false, right.
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LLM Limitations: Human Scaffolding Requirements for Output Convergence
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I think this distinction sometimes elides people who are quite steeped in day to day LLM usage, because you can imagine a system that you can cobble together which would converge on correct output after you have spent hundreds of hours on being human scaffolding for it.
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Engineering Rigor vs. Production Costs in Functional Art
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Right, this is the point: when we think maximum engineering rigor would push costs for a functional art piece to incredible levels we are forgetting what drives teh cost of maximum engineering rigor, which is not "produce a thing that mostly works."