If someone steals your card and perfectly reproduces your signature, and you say "My card was stolen; I did not pay for that dinner", your bank will say "Yeah sounds really likely and we have no exposure here, OK restauraunt eats it. Can we get you off phone quickly please?"
@patio11
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Solemnization as sociolegal boundary marker in business contexts
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As I've mentioned previously, solemnization is a sociolegal tripwire to say "There are many situations in society and in business where you're Just Talking and up until this exact moment we have been Just Talking *and after this point* We Were Not Just Talking. Do you get it?"
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Far-UV Research Discussion with Stanford Columbia Blueprint Biosecurity
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There will be a happy hour in the evening. I'm moderating a discussion on far-UV between researchers from Stanford, Columbia, and Blueprint Biosecurity. Hope to see you there! The organizers would like you to RSVP if you plan on coming:
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Satire Outpaces Finance in Share Bubble Analysis
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Have read it. It did not quite grab me, because the satire got ahead of the finance, and as depicted there is no way the bubble in shares of loot works.
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Organizational pipeline skill development impact analysis
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“Can you bit a bit more concrete?” A large organization requires a hiring pipeline with post-hiring training and then, depending on character of the work, years to decades of skill-upping. Putting a three year bubble in the pipeline, only 5% of total org size or so, a big deal.
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Expanding organizational insights to complex adaptive systems
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One can expand this intuition from organizations to many other complex systems.
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Fragility of Assumed Technological Solutions and Economic Risks
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This sometimes worries me, because things we take for granted as being Utterly Solved are much more fragile than they appear, and treating them as harmless places to extract economic rent (or similar) risks far faster breakage than people would expect.
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Organizations Constantly Renew Themselves Despite Static Appearances
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Even organizations that appear static from the outside are in the constant process of renewing themselves. (That taking up so many cycles can be one reason they appear static.)
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LLMs Influencing Parenting Decisions and Family Planning
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Decisions I make in parenting my children are different than they would be if the Internet didn't exist. *Obviously.* Haven't made major decisions due to LLMs on that front but feel like would be almost negligent not to at some point.
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AI Capabilities Sufficient for Transformative 10-20 Year Impact
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And yeah if capabilities stop ~now or at 20% more than now that's already sufficient to be fairly transformative after 10-20 years to digest and put them in everything, much like it took a while to retool and put the Internet in everything, and see second and third order effects.