Risk management of things that are totally novel and for which you have zero experience and little understanding is very different from normal risk management. In the absence of any experience, understanding is all you have. I'd go with whoever has the best understanding.
@geoffreyhinton
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AI Radiologists: From Second Opinion to Superior Diagnosis
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Yes, I was wrong about the time scale, but AI is already comparable with radiologists for several types of images. It seems likely that in a few years it will routinely be giving second opinions and in 10 more years the second opinions will be better than the human opinions.
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AI extinction risk probability estimates without regulation
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So what is your best estimate of the probability that if AI is not strongly regulated it will lead to human extinction in the next 30 years? If you are a true Bayesian you should be able to give a number. My current estimate is 0.1. I suspect Yann's is <0.01
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Open Sourcing Nuclear Weapons: Security and Ethics Implications
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Let's open source nuclear weapons too to make them safer. The good guys (us) will always have bigger ones than the bad guys (them) so it should all be OK.
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Google’s AI Progress: Transformers and Diffusion Models
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IMO the public perception that Google is not making much progress in AI is wrong. They invented transformers and diffusion models. The perception comes from the fact that they have been very cautious in what they release.
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Why People Will Continue Developing Artificial Intelligence
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This is a very good point. It is the reason why people will continue to develop AI.
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Andrew Ng Existential Risk Claims Disputed by Former Google Researcher
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Andrew Ng is claiming that the idea that AI could make us extinct is a big-tech conspiracy. A datapoint that does not fit this conspiracy theory is that I left Google so that I could speak freely about the existential threat.
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AI Models 100x Larger Pose Unknown Risks Amid Lack Regulation
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New paper: https://
managing-ai-risks.com
Companies are planning to train models with 100x more computation than today’s state of the art, within 18 months. No one knows how powerful they will be. And there’s essentially no regulation on what they’ll be able to do with these models. -
Vayu Robotics addresses market niche with ethical AI approach
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It seems to me that @VayuRobotics is addressing a great market niche and their approach has fewer ethical problems than many other AI applications. I look forward to working with @nitishsr and his team. (3/3)
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Vayu Designs Safe Low-Speed Delivery Robots
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@VayuRobotics is designing light, low-speed robots for local deliveries. These robots have about 1% of the kinetic energy of a 50 mph car and a much shorter stopping distance, which makes it far easier to make them safe. (2/3)