The central issue on which we disagree is whether LLMs actually understand what they are saying. You think they definitely don't and I think they probably do. Do you agree that this is the core of our disagreement?
@geoffreyhinton
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Risk Assessment vs Personal Conviction in Extinction Policy
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There is a big difference between my best bet (which is that we are a passing phase of evolution) and a considered estimate of the probability of extinction used for making policy. For the considered estimate you need to entertain the possibility that your own best bet is wrong.
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LeCun’s AI Risk Assessment Contradicts Expert Consensus
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Yann LeCun thinks the risk of AI taking over is miniscule. This means he puts a big weight on his own opinion and a miniscule weight on the opinions of many other equally qualified experts.
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Fei-Fei Li’s Book on AI Potential and Dangers
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Fei-Fei Li has written a book. She was the first computer vision researcher to truly understand the power of big data and her work opened the floodgates for deep learning. She delivers a clear-eyed account of the awesome potential and danger of AI.
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AI Existential Risk: Assessing Extinction Probability in 30 Years
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Yes. It would be crazy not to consider this possibility.
Have you seriously considered the possibility it might wipe us all out and if so what probability do you put on that happening in the next 30 years. If you are really a Bayesian you should be able to give me a probability. -
AI Progress Trajectory: Exponential Growth Over Past Decade
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There is so much wrong with that argument that I do not know where to start. Maybe just look at how smart AI was 10 years ago and how smart it is now. Then project that 10 years into the future.
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Existential AI Threats and Normalization Concerns Debate
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Attacking my concerns about the existential threat by saying that I am normalizing or cheering on genocides is an interesting approach.
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Controlling More Intelligent Agents: Literature and Challenges
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As Raza Habib said, there is plenty of literature on this. My main reason is simply that I know of no cases where a much more intelligent agent is controlled by a much less intelligent one.
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Why Big Tech Really Wants AI Regulations: Liability Protection
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I suspect that Andrew Ng and Yann LeCun have missed the main reason why the big companies want regulations. Years ago the founder of a self-driving company told me that he liked safety regulations because if you satisfied them it reduced your legal liability for accidents.