We have not reached the peak. But we are not 10,000x off. We are more like 50% off. It's not a weird coincidence that we're already close, it's mechanical: once you have general intelligence you will inevitably start moving closer to optimality over time, at an accelerating speed
@fchollet
-
Human Science’s Ability to Generalize Models from Available Information
By
–
Basically, consider a high-profile scientific problem (one that is getting enough attention from smart humans and their externalized cognitive infrastructure). How good is human Science at converting the information available about the problem into generalizable models of the
-
Intelligence and Skill Are Not Equivalent Concepts
By
–
Bad analogy because you're equating intelligence and skill (being good at chess or Go), but intelligence is emphatically *not* skill
-
Human Intelligence with Tools Approaches Optimal Problem-Solving
By
–
I do believe that a large collective of the smartest humans, aided by external tools, sits very close to the optimality bound — i.e. humans should be able to solve any solvable problem (where the required information is available) if they pay enough attention to it
-
Intelligence as a Conversion Ratio with Optimality Bounds
By
–
One of the biggest misconceptions people have about intelligence is seeing it as some kind of unbounded scalar stat, like height. "Future AI will have 10,000 IQ", that sort of thing. Intelligence is a conversion ratio, with an optimality bound. Increasing intelligence is not so
-
Vizier-style Bayesian search outperforms alternative hyperparameter optimization
By
–
As it turns out, it's empirically much less efficient than Vizier-style Bayesian hyperparameter search
-
AGI Future Class Divide: Cognitive Agency Over Wealth
By
–
A lot of folks talk about "escaping the permanent underclass". If AGI pans out, the future class divide won't be based on wealth, but on cognitive agency. There will be a "focus class" (those who control their attention and actually do things) and a "slop class" (those whose
-
Payment Solutions for AI Agents Beyond Visa and Mastercard
By
–
I don't think the solution is going to be Visa and Mastercard, which were built for humans at cash registers. They're too expensive for the kind of rapid-fire small-scale transactions we're going to see with agents ($0.3 + 3%). They're also quite slow (T+48h settlement) So you
-
Agent-Native Payment Infrastructure for 10x Transaction Growth
By
–
I basically agree. Agents are soon going to be buying services/resources online, and the world is going to need agent-native payment infra, like Sam's @agentcashdev We're probably looking at a >10x transaction increase.