Is there a business model for being profitable off training frontier open weights models? Other people can host, fine-tune, consult etc. as least as cheaply as you can. There are no ancilary product sales & it is fantastically expensive to make compared to most open source work
@emollick
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Google’s innovative AI apps need smarter brains and harnesses
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Its also a shame because Google has some of the most innovative AI apps, like NotebookLM, but they need smarter brains to power them (as well as the harnesses needed for those brains)
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Flash models suffice for consumers but not for agentic work
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A very good flash model may be all you need for mass serving consumers, but it doesn't do much for serious or agentic work.
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Google lacks public frontier model, Gemini 3.1 Pro lagging
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Interestingly, Google no longer has a public frontier model. They have a very good flash model, but a very good flash model can't do frontier work without a good frontier orchestrator. I am sure this will change soon, but Gemini 3.1 Pro is very clearly lagging at this point.
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Exponential tech and open models make investment hard
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In large part that’s because it’s hard to invest in a world where the exponential continues and open models never close thr gap. The value js just chips, energy, data centers, and the labs themselves.
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Hope that AI exponential growth ends soon not materializing
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There is a ton of money riding on the hope that the exponential curve the Big Three Labs are on will end soon If that happens, small and open models become viable, businesses get time to react, costs drop & the world gets weirder more slowly. But that isn’t happening so far.
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AI strategies from late 2025 now outdated by agentic revolution
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Big issue with AI strategies at big companies which realized the importance of AI last year (which is only a small subset, most are still not moving fast) is that, in the best case, they developed their strategy in late 2025, before the agentic revolution Things changed since…
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GPT-5.5 Pro/XHigh as judge for subjective scoring
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GPT-5.5 Pro/XHigh as a judge for the subjective scoring.
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AI benchmark: procedural 3D harbor town evolution simulation
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I have a fun, oddly useful AI benchmark: "build me a procedurally generated 3D simulation showing the evolution of a harbor town from 3000 BC to 3000 AD, it should look beautiful & allow me to have some control over it" Play the gallery of 20 models: