Write up of our paper: https://
oneusefulthing.org/p/centaurs-and
-cyborgs-on-the-jagged
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@emollick
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Centaurs and Cyborgs: Human-AI Collaboration Framework
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AI Quality Threshold Reduces Human Oversight and Error Detection
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Lex is right, Sam was wrong. Our research shows that people don’t really check the work of AIs, once those AIs cross a certain threshold of quality. We found that consultants, for example, “fell asleep at the wheel” and did not look for AI errors. Training didn’t help, either.
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Simon-Ehrlich Wager: Technology Resources and Economic Future
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Context of the wager https://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%
80Ehrlich_wager
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Invisible Productivity Gains from Automation Reshaping Employment
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The massive productivity improvements from automation (and resulting changes in employment) that you don’t see, but on which the modern world depends. From Conway’s “The Material World”
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Claude 3 GPT-4 Gemini guardrails comparison analysis
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What a weird set of guardrails from Claude 3. GPT-4 is the only one willing to run with it. Gemini tries to be helpful, suggesting I have come across a crime scene.
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Tightening OODA Loops: Design Thinking, Agile, and AI Integration
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Researchers & managers have developed a suite of approaches that companies can take to tighten their OODA loops, for example: design thinking for ideation; experiment-driven methods & lean startups for early exploration; and agile for product development. AI can help, too.
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OODA Loop Competitive Advantage Strategy for Companies
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Boyd argued that the loop applies to companies, too. If you can "get inside the OODA loop" of your competitor, you have the advantage. By the time they even notice a market is there, you have identified an opportunity, gathered data, tried an approach, and learned from mistakes.
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OODA Loop: Speed of Decision Cycles Wins
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The basic idea is that, in combat, pilots go through repeated cycles of:
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) 18 mars 2024
👁️Observation, gathering data
🧠Orientation, analysis of data, drawing on background & mental state
↔️Decision, choice of action to take
🎆Action, making a decision happen
Whoever does the loops faster, wins pic.twitter.com/T8Jfkyh0NyThe basic idea is that, in combat, pilots go through repeated cycles of:
Observation, gathering data
Orientation, analysis of data, drawing on background & mental state
Decision, choice of action to take
Action, making a decision happen
Whoever does the loops faster, wins -
OODA Loop: Strategic Decision Making Framework for Uncertainty
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This is a fascinating frame: “OODA loop as a way of making luck work for you” The OODA "loop" was developed by military strategist John Boyd to explain why some pilots won in air combat, but works as a profound mediation about dealing with uncertainty & using pacing to win 1/5 https://
t.co/6NJZArwVR2 -
Frontier Models, RAG, and AI Agents in Enterprise
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In addition to reviewing the positives & negatives of the three frontier models, this post has some of my more provocative takes for people using AI inside organizations, including why RAG may not be the future, and why agents like Devin the Coder might be