A truism of con games is that no mark is as bullheadedly confident as one you get to believe that he's Figured It Out, that he's seen through it all. Like someone who's Figured Out that this "human extinction" business is secretly a con by the AI companies themselves, to make themselves look important to investors, and boost their stock prices. A mark in a con game who thinks he's Figured It Out often won't notice what he's actually doing — won't stop to consider how the actual action commended to him by his keen insight, consists of withdrawing his full bank account in $100 bills, and FedExing them to an address in Minnesota. He's in the know, see. And if you don't yet see how this general principle of con artistry works, it works like somebody on the political left who's figured out that all talk of regulating AI companies is really a con job by the AI companies themselves, aiming for regulatory capture. And so the clever thing to do is… to completely remove themselves from the AI company's way, and let the AI companies do whatever the hell they want until the world ends. Once the mark has been brought onto the inside and told about the supposed gimmick, they're so proud of being In The Know that they don't notice what exact course of action is being commended to them, by the guy who's slung a friendly arm around their shoulder. They're on the inside, now. They know the secret truth. And they're not gonna just play into the hands of the AI companies by trying to, say… shut them down, or regulate them or impose monitors on them, or oppose anything that AI companies are doing in any way. It is an easy con to see through, if you know the actual history and intellectual lineage of extinction concerns, and how long they predate the AI companies supposedly inventing them. Or if you're tracking the destination of the hundreds of millions of dollars AI companies are pouring into lobbying and PACs, to try to primary any politicians who favor regulating AI. But you don't need to study either of those complicated detailed facts. You just need to notice that the actual course of action commended by the clever secret insight is, "Don't raise any really severe concerns about the AI companies that might motivate severe interventions against them; and be sure to let them do whatever they want without regulation." It shouldn't be such a high bar to notice that, and wise people on both the left and right have done so.

→ View original post on X — @esyudkowsky, 2026-04-01 02:33 UTC