One can expand this intuition from organizations to many other complex systems.
AGI
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Information Sharing and Generalization as Understanding Mechanism
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i think it's the information-sharing/generalization part that makes what we'd call understanding happen
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Dwarkesh podcast guests debate divergent AI singularity and job market scenarios
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I love how Dwarkesh‘s guests alternatingly construct detailed scenarios of futures where singularities manifest in 2 or 30 years, followed by a world in which openAI does not interfere with the job market of tax attorneys unless Anthropic releases irresponsible improvements
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Formal Arguments Required for Large Model Limitation Claims
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I think that strong claims about the limits of large end-to-end trained models require a formal argument or decisive empirical support, because they go beyond what is scientifically known
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Dario Amodei Warns of Imminent Job Bloodbath and Universal Basic Income
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Pour faire suite à ce tweet où je parle du revenu universel de base comme d’un besoin vital pour éviter l’effondrement de notre modèle économique : J’en discute en détail ici, dans ma dernière vidéo : Dario Amodei parle d’un "bain de sang" imminent… et d’un chômage qui
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Sam Altman Warns World Must Prepare for Massive AI Impact
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Sam Altman déclare que le monde doit se préparer collectivement à l’impact massif de l’IA. Il dis: « Il y aura des périodes effrayantes à venir » « OpenAI publie volontairement des modèles imparfaits dès maintenant pour que le monde puisse les voir, s’adapter, et contribuer à
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Alpha-AGI Browser Demo Enables Self-Evolving Agent-Firms Ecosystem
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α-AGI Insight — in-dev browser demo ] Re-splices scenario-grammar DNA live Autopoietic agent-firms bloom & fuse around raw Alpha Self-evolving treaties steer a borderless mesh set to bend the post-capital horizon #AGIALPHA #MetaAgentic $AGIALPHA
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Future AI predictions: only one perspective can be right
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And on that day in the future, zero, one, or two of us will *be unambiguously right.* Of those scenarios, "two" seems like the most unlikely number.
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How AI Progress Surprised Skeptics Since 2015
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I think many people have forgotten that they were quite skeptical of ever seeing meaningful progress on AI in their lifetimes in e.g. 2015. I *remember* being skeptical and *I remember* being surprised and I *want to be careful to remember* how wrong that was.
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AGI and Populism: Future Political Risks
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Oh if you think that populism is bad now, just wait to see what happens once the fully blown AGI is here.