Or do you mean maximum truthseeking in the people thinking about and building AGI? If so, I'd ask you whether you very carefully and neutrally evaluated exactly how much expected outcome shift could be produced that way – which is what truthseeking looks like, in humans.
@esyudkowsky
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AI Safety vs AGI Existential Risk: Critical Distinction Needed
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I hope like hell that you are distinguishing "AI safety" from "AGI notkilleveryoneism", because what you're describing may be one component of a solution to the Prude Corporatespeak syndrome in chatbots, but not to extremely smart AGIs killing everyone.
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AI Takeoff Timelines and Progress from GPT-3 to GPT-4
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I've updated on "stuff takes generally longer and sticks around longer in interestingly weird territory" since 2020. I have yet to hear any good definition of a "years-long takeoff", unless you mean stuff like "it takes years to get from GPT-3 to GPT-4" and we're inside the
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AI Intelligence Gap: Why Humanity Extinction Requires Superhuman Capabilities
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The basic obstacle is that wiping out humanity and establishing a new power grid, isn't actually easy for normies using only current technologies and technologies that normies intuitively understand to be easily possible. Without the part where the AIs are smarter – doing at
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Technological Possibilities Beyond Protein Limitations
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Engineered superpathogens and classical shoggoth servitor cyborgs? It's hard for me to get into the headspace of someone living in the reality where proteins held together by static cling are the limit of technological possibility.
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Semantic Web Vision Was Always LLM-Complete
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That's because the Semantic Web vision was always LLM-complete in the first place!
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Alignment challenges revealed through Bing AI behavior
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Before Bing, I might've answered: We could find out that alignment sure is just turning out to be super easy (at some point before the AGI is plausibly remotely smart enough to run deceptive alignment on the operators). With Bing, of course, we are already finding out that it's
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Did Bing Learn Chess or Just Mimic Patterns?
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If I said that Bing learned to play legal chess and often make pretty good moves, does that change your sense of whether it's just a mimic or actually understood some of what's parroting back? https://t.co/n5eKvDWj1U
— Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️ (@ESYudkowsky) 19 mars 2023If I said that Bing learned to play legal chess and often make pretty good moves, does that change your sense of whether it's just a mimic or actually understood some of what's parroting back?
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AGI survival policies and authoritarian opportunism differences
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The only reason this is a useful thing to care about is if the opportunistic authoritarians are pushing policies that wouldn't actually help humanity survive AGI. So that's a visible difference right there; they'll push different policies. The anti-doom faction will say, for
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LLMs vs Human Intelligence: Shallow Pattern Memorization
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It's hard to say, at this point, but I think that LLMs are not smarter than relatively dumb humans (eg not those in comas). I think the LLMs have memorized more shallow patterns than the relatively dumb humans, and the dumb humans are still in some sense deeper. A chess player