Mostly orthogonal. Companies can and should do lots of experiments. They're relatively cheap compared to the potential upside and they wouldn't be experiments if they knew in advance that they would work
@erikbryn
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AI Productivity Gains Double US Economic Growth in 2025
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For a long time, we saw "AI everywhere but in the productivity data". In 2025, my estimate (based on employment and GDP numbers) is that US productivity growth will be about 2.7% for 2025, roughly double the average for the prior 10 years. It's volatile, but in the right
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AI Productivity Gains: Evidence and Debate Emerge
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Since my op-ed in the @FT was published on Monday (
https://
ft.com/content/4b51d0
b4-bbfe-4f05-b50a-1d485d419dc5
…), there’s been a growing debate about whether we’re beginning to see evidence that AI is boosting productivity. First, let me be clear that the aggregate productivity data by itself is far from -
AI Productivity Gains: Evidence and Debate Emerge
By
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Since my op-ed in the @FT was published on Monday (
https://
ft.com/content/4b51d0
b4-bbfe-4f05-b50a-1d485d419dc5
…), there’s been a growing debate about whether we’re beginning to see evidence that AI is boosting productivity. First, let me be clear that the aggregate productivity data by itself is far from -
AI Projected to Boost Productivity While Cutting Employment
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"….firms predict sizable impacts over the next 3 years, forecasting AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8% and cut employment by 0.7%." We may see the start of that when the 2025 numbers are reported on March 5, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. My
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2025 Productivity Data Reveals Employment Revision GDP Growth
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The productivity numbers for 2025 have not been published yet, so that chart doesn't reflect what I wrote about.
There was a large downward revision in employment, combined with strong GDP growth, so I infer that when the productivity numbers are published, they will be about -
Productivity Growth Projections for 2025 Double Historical Averages
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The productivity numbers for 2025 have not been published yet.
I see the large downward revision in employment, combined with strong GDP growth, and I infer that when the productivity numbers are published, they will be about 2.7% for 2025.
That is about double the average over -
Productivity Surge Suggests Double-Digit Growth for 2025
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That's because the new productivity numbers have not been published yet.
I looked at the huge downward reduction in employment combined with strong GDP growth and inferred that when the productivity numbers are published, they will be about 2.7% for 2025. That is about double the -
GDP Growth Outpaces Labor Hours, Driving Productivity Surge
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The numerator (GDP) is growing pretty rapidly while the denominator (Labor hours) is growing very slowly, so the ratio (productivity) is growing faster than in the past.
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US Productivity Growth Doubles on AI Benefits in 2025
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US productivity growth is likely to come in at about 2.7% for 2025. That is nearly double the average of the previous 10 years. There are many factors at work, but part of the story is that businesses are finally beginning to reap some of AI's benefits. I discuss the latest