So it doesn’t matter if you're a company in the US, China, or elsewhere. DeepSeek should be a cue to pivot HARD toward investing in far more efficient methods of AI development. Even if you care nothing about community & climate impacts, it’s just better business. 19/
@_karenhao
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DeepSeek challenges OpenAI’s expensive scaling strategy
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DeepSeek now also undermines the business case for scaling. OpenAI has been burning through staggering sums of cash to keep up its scaling paradigm and has yet to figure out how to balance its checkbooks – and it turns out it didn’t need to spend so much cash. 18/
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Scaling AI is Business Strategy, Not Scientific Necessity
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As I said earlier, scaling was always more about business than science. Scientifically, there’s no law of physics that says AI advancements must come from scaling rather than approaches using the same or fewer resources. Scaling is just an incredibly easy-to-follow formula. 17/
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False Trade-off: Data Centers and AGI’s Unrealistic Environmental Solutions
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Wait a minute. You mean to say that we don’t need to blanket the earth with data centers and coal & gas plants to maybe arrive at a future where we can wave a magical AGI wand to make all of the consequences of that go away? Yes. This is a false trade off. Let that sink in. 16/
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DeepSeek challenges OpenAI’s narrative on AI development trade-offs
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But DeepSeek shows – in the same moment as the Stargate announcement – that the trade off that OpenAI & co frame as wholly necessary is actually not. 15/
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Silicon Valley’s Control Over Critical Energy and Water Infrastructure
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Now on top of the negative externalities on people’s power, water, air, and global climate, we have another: the ceding of more & more control over critical energy & water infrastructure to Silicon Valley. I wrote about this last week in @TheAtlantic
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Stargate $500B infrastructure investment accelerates data center development
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Should Stargate follow through with $500B, it'll be the largest infrastructure spend in history and significantly accelerate the already startling pace of data center development post-ChatGPT. In turn that will significantly accelerate the aforementioned consequences. 13/
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Trump announces Stargate Project: $500B investment in AI computing infrastructure
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This line of thinking has been so effective in capturing the mindshare of powerful decision makers that president Trump just last week announced the Stargate Project, a $500B private investment into data centers & other computing infrastructure for OpenAI. 12/
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Tech Giants’ Emissions Surge Due to AI Energy Demands and Fossil Fuels
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Then there are the global impacts. More coal & gas means more carbon emissions, accelerating our climate crisis. Hence why Google & MSFT saw a ~50% & 30% jump in emissions since 2019 & 2020 respectively (from @darakerr at @npr
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OpenAI’s AGI Argument: Short-term Trade-offs for Long-term Solutions
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OpenAI & co have come up with a funny argument for why to accept these externalities: Yes unfortunately there are trade-offs in the short term, they say, but they're necessary to reach so-called AGI; AGI will then help us solve all these problems! So trade offs = worth it. 11/