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NeurIPS Authors Overestimate Acceptance Chances Dramatically

Figure 1b) shows >= 90% of #NeurIPS2022 submissions thought they had a >= 25% chance of getting accepted. But only ~25% were accepted. Does this mean:
a) Authors overrate their work or b) Reviewers underrate most papers? Source: https://
blog.ml.cmu.edu/2022/11/22/neu
rips2021-author-perception-experiment/
… https://
cs.cmu.edu/~nihars/prepri
nts/NeurIPS_2021_Author_Perception_Experiment.pdf

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