Goldman tries to quantify the net effect of AI both substituting for and augmenting U.S. employment. Their conclusion: AI substitution in occupations like phone operations and insurance claims administration have reduced monthly payroll gains by around -25K and raised the unemployment rate by 0.16 pp over the past year. AI augmentation in occupations including medicine and education have added +9K to monthly payrolls and lowered the unemployment rate by 0.06 pp. This nets out to a slight -16K drag on payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 pp. Caveat: This exercise doesn't account for the possible benefit from either construction hiring due to data-center buildout or AI-driven productivity/income gains.

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