After a brief hiatus, new post with @soumitrashukla9: "How Will AI-driven Automation Actually Affect Jobs? The economics of AI exposure and job displacement" There has been a lot of discussion in the media, X, substack, etc about AI driven displacement. We felt like it'd be worth working out the actual economics of when AI automation will actually lead to displacement, versus the exact opposite (more hiring, higher wages). A short summary🧵: AI "exposure" measures are not meant to predict displacement or job automation. Exposure can lead a job loss, or it can lead to more hiring and higher wages. It all depends on how 1) automated tasks interact with non-automated tasks (to what extent they're complements), 2) how consumer demand in that sector responds to prices (elasticity of consumer demand), and 3) the dimensionality of the job (the number of tasks a job has). One conclusion: we should be less worried about consultants and more worried about truckers and warehouse workers than we currently are. Link: substack.com/home/post/p-191…

→ View original post on X — @erikbryn, 2026-03-23 16:30 UTC